Treasury Yields Vary

Published May 2, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields moved lower earlier in the week as investors analyzed new economic data indicating the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years. Yields trended higher at the end of the week as the latest employment data showed a surge in unemployment claims.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that the revised estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a monetary measure of the market value of all goods and services produced in a specific time period, decreased at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2025. This was far below economists’ expectations of a 0.4% annualized gain and lower than the 2.4% growth achieved in the fourth quarter of 2024.

“The drop seems to be wholly due to tariff-related distortions,” wrote economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “GDP likely would have risen in the absence of the dramatic shift in policy. Underlying momentum in growth was undoubtedly waning before the tariff shock, though, and in its aftermath we now expect activity to stagnate this year.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of April 28 at 4.24% and traded as high as 4.25% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.71% and traded as high as 4.75% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26. This significantly exceeded economists’ expectations of 225,000. Continuing claims rose by 83,000 to 1.92 million.

"Unease is the word of the day," said ADP chief economist, Nela Richardson. "Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of April 28 at 4.31% while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.79%.